I'll shed my newcomer veneer for a second. It's simply too juicy not to.
CVA:
Much questioning has been going on as to what CVA was thinking. The answer is, essentially, that the CVA folks are hypothesizing when they are asking that question doesn't exist. Most alliances, null security alliances in particular, are a herd of peons led by folks who understand what's going on. I say this without attempting to give offense. I'm a peon myself. Anyone who thinks in terms of their individual capacity and enjoyment within Eve is. The leadership plays the much more complicated game of "Eve-Alliance", and keeps everything set up such that the peons can play their more enjoyable grunt version.
CVA isn't like this. CVA has always been the switzerland of null security alliances. It's never had a real conflict. Not ever. It started off as a marriage of an RP notion and a shrewd fellow (long since retired) who saw the advantages in NRDS. The leadership of CVA have had the sense not to rock the boat, and amalgamated other similar organizations to become Providence Holders without ever really changing this dynamic. The result is this: CVA are grunts through and through. Call them individual players, call them peons, grunts, what have you, there's no one in authority in CVA who isn't one.
This has several consequences, the disastrous failure at cap ship warfare only the most visible (doctrine of mediocrity. They'd never done it, so they bombed.) It was obvious that they'd be defeated. Why did they ship up? Before we answer that let's look at another question.
Why are they still mouthing off to AAA? Why no quick behind the scenes capitulation? Why the odd silence from official channels? All of these answers are the same answer. They are still peons. They have no real skin in the game.
What's the risk of poor behavior for CVA's leadership? The 4 main guys have all the assets they could ever imagine. They've run Providence all the way through to Dominion. They could play EVE for literally ever and never want. They are taken care of.
They take losses the same way you take the loss of your mission running BS when you are a level 4 Empire runner. It's vexing, but trivial. Truth be told, they don't even log in that much nowadays.
Thus, they have naught to lose by standing on principle, or, you know, for whatever. They are also as bad at alliance warfare as any newcomer suddenly thrust into command authority. What they know is administering providence, shepherding greys, smacking blinky's. They are still learning alliance warfare, but doing so publicly. This is shameful, thus their silence and incoherence.
AAA/U-K:
So that's CVA's side of things. What's up with the other side? Why are they taking so long to smash Provi?
Simple. They are the doms, and like all doms, they aren't in the driver's seat. Their relationship with Provi is important, but they need provi to go back to being space cops. It doesn't work if they are just another null sec alliance.
Imagine if Switzerland invaded someone. They'd lose, sure, but you don't want to beat them and own them, you want them to go back to being Switzerland! You need the neutral banker! In this case, you need the guys who are satisfied by doing a bad Concorde impression, and lure neutrals out to 0.0 for you to prey on.
U-K is similar. They are the RP foes of Provi, but they have sort of evolved into real pirates, over time. They don't want to be pirates full time, like all the other groups out there. They are the Ulshra-whatever. They Come For Their People! What will that motto mean when they own Provi and AAA is their only neighbor? AAA sure isn't about to start making Amarr noises to satisfy their vanity.
Providence Holders:
Aside from CVA, the other Holders are a diverse bunch, but can be summed up in the following camps.
0.0 Alliance members: These guys think they are in a real 0.0 alliance. They are ready to fight, losing is fine, it's better than being forced to be space cops forever. These guys are primarily in Paxton Federation, but Sylph has a number as well.
Industrialists: Mostly s3v here, but others as well. These guys are just in Providence Holders because it's a 0.0 alliance that never gets into big boring wars. They want to be out in 0.0, but have no desire to be space cops. These guys would strike a deal with AAA, but aren't really the ones with anything to offer them. They aren't the ones who make Provi what it is/has been.
RPers: These guys are the goods, they are space cops and FWarriors. What you think of when you think of CVA/Provi. They don't want to capitulate for RP reasons, but they want to get back to business as usual ASAP.
All told, a fine mess.
AAA/U-K want (the bosses, here, the grunts just want to play EVE), CVA to come to its senses and return to being subs (seriously, banzai tree metaphors? Could there be a more insulting way to propose peace?). Providence Holders wants what I've described. The leadership is essentially AWOL. They are playing their individual chars, and mostly forum war anyway. They simply don't care for the levers thus far being applied.
My guess? AAA/U-K leadership throws up its hands and bows to the pressure of it's membership, and destroys Provi, maybe with the help of a deal making faction, probably S3v. New Provi doesn't attract greys in the numbers that old Provi did. CVA's leadership makes a big deal about how they will one day return, but effectively never do. Provi as a whole might recollect itself in the 24thIC.
